thoma_2025_emerging

bandit psych-201

A single child-friendly probability-learning (two-option bandit) experiment with N = 483 participants across four age bands (3-4, 6-7, 9-11 years, adults) making 100 binary choices (5 blocks of 20 trials) between two probabilistically rewarded options. Each participant was assigned to one of three between-subjects statistical environments (static_high, static_random, ecologically-plausible dynamic). Trial-level rows record the chosen option, whether a reward was delivered, the scheduled/target (correct) location, and post-choice numeric estimates of each option's reward rate. The study asks when adaptive (exploitative vs exploratory) repeated-choice behavior emerges in development, and hierarchical RL + perseveration models (Stan) provide converging evidence for perseveration in 3-4-year-olds and diversification from age 6 onward.

Responses
48,300
4,800 held out
CORE effects
1 / 1
CORE test NLL (avg)
0.545
rank 2 of 7 models
Best model
CORE (no phonemes)
test NLL (avg) 0.543

Likelihood of human responses

modelPNLLtest NLL (avg)test responses train NLL (avg)train responses
CORE2,614.00.54464,8000.500643,500
CORE (no prediction errors)2,624.10.54674,8000.502843,500
CORE (no phonemes) best2,607.20.54324,8000.493343,500
CORE (no forgetting)2,658.70.55394,8000.513343,500
CORE (no hierarchy)3,033.00.63194,8000.600743,500
Transformer2,736.40.57014,8000.528243,500
Centaur2,654.20.55294,800––

Experiments

exptask classparticipantsresponsesconditionssimulatedeffects
exp0ProbabilityLearningTask48348,30012yesstatic_high_probability_learning

Behavioral effects

effectexperimentpaperCORECORE (no prediction errors)CORE (no phonemes)CORE (no forgetting)CORE (no hierarchy)
static_high_probability_learningexp0+0.070✓ yes
+0.039
✓ yes
+0.040
✓ yes
+0.057
✗ no
+0.015
✗ no
+0.004

Transcript

You are helping find zoo animals that have escaped and are hiding behind two houses. The experimenter shows you 50 escaped animals on a sheet and explains that you should find as many as possible by guessing which house an animal is hiding behind. There are two identical houses, a left house and a right house. On each trial, press B to choose the left house or press A to choose the right house. After each choice the houses turn transparent so you can see exactly where animals are hiding, and a checkmark or a cross shows whether your choice was correct. Every correct choice fills one tenth of a blue circle in the corner; each full circle earns you a token.

Block 1 begins.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find no animal (cross) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find no animal (cross) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.

Block 2 begins.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.

Block 3 begins.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.

Block 4 begins.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find no animal (cross) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find no animal (cross) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.

Block 5 begins.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find no animal (cross) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find no animal (cross) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.
You tap A (the right house). You find an animal (checkmark) - no animal behind the left house; an animal is behind the right house.
You tap B (the left house). You find an animal (checkmark) - an animal is behind the left house; no animal behind the right house.