suthaharan_2021_paranoia
Adults (MTurk/CloudResearch) completed a probabilistic reversal-learning task across two between-subjects conditions: a non-social version (choosing among deck images, N = 311) and a social version (choosing which avatar 'collaborator' to trust, N = 627). Each session had 160 trials, which the paper presents as 4 blocks of 40 and the source stores as two 80-trial halves (`block` 0/1 here; the reward contingencies change at trial 80), with discrete option choices (3 options) and binary reward outcomes whose contingencies drifted and periodically reversed. Participants were recruited across US states between March and July 2020 spanning the pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown pandemic periods, plus a replication cohort, and completed self-report questionnaires (RGPTS paranoia, BAI, BDI, DOCS, conspiracy and mask-attitude scales). The research question asks whether rising real-world uncertainty during the pandemic increased paranoia and made belief updating more erratic/volatile. Data are trial-level choices plus per-participant questionnaire and Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF) fitted parameters.
Responses
150,080
14,880 held out
CORE effects
–
no effects simulated
CORE test NLL (avg)
0.434
rank 1 of 7 models
Best model
CORE
test NLL (avg) 0.434
Likelihood of human responses
| model | PNLL | test NLL (avg) | test responses | train NLL (avg) | train responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORE best | 6,455.1 | 0.4338 | 14,880 | 0.4551 | 135,200 |
| CORE (no prediction errors) | 6,568.3 | 0.4414 | 14,880 | 0.4632 | 135,200 |
| CORE (no phonemes) | 6,498.5 | 0.4367 | 14,880 | 0.4525 | 135,200 |
| CORE (no forgetting) | 6,749.3 | 0.4536 | 14,880 | 0.4726 | 135,200 |
| CORE (no hierarchy) | 7,808.0 | 0.5247 | 14,880 | 0.5559 | 135,200 |
| Transformer | 6,793.7 | 0.4566 | 14,880 | 0.4796 | 135,200 |
| Centaur | 6,876.2 | 0.4621 | 14,880 | – | – |
Experiments
| exp | task class | participants | responses | conditions | simulated | effects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exp0 | AversiveReversalLearningCard | 311 | 49,760 | 1 | no | – |
| exp1 | AversiveReversalLearningAvatar | 627 | 100,320 | 1 | no | – |
Behavioral effects
No behavioral effects were simulated for this study.
Transcript
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