olschewski_2025_optimal
Two preregistered online (Prolific) studies investigated how people allocate deliberation time to risky choices under opportunity costs. In Study 1 (exp0, N=127) participants rated 60 single lotteries and then chose between pairs of them, with the utility difference between the lotteries either known or unknown across blocked conditions; in Study 2 (exp1, N=240) they chose between lotteries under a manipulated opportunity cost, either with or without a time limit per block. Response type is a binary choice (Lottery A/B) with per-trial reaction times; the rating phase itself is not in the data, only the resulting ratings of each pair. The authors fit drift-diffusion models with constant versus collapsing decision bounds to ask whether decision-makers adaptively adjust their evidence-accumulation threshold to the environment's cost structure.
Responses
53,916
5,148 held out
CORE effects
–
no effects simulated
CORE test NLL (avg)
0.445
rank 1 of 7 models
Best model
CORE
test NLL (avg) 0.445
Likelihood of human responses
| model | PNLL | test NLL (avg) | test responses | train NLL (avg) | train responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORE best | 2,291.1 | 0.4451 | 5,148 | 0.4125 | 48,768 |
| CORE (no prediction errors) | 2,328.9 | 0.4524 | 5,148 | 0.4162 | 48,768 |
| CORE (no phonemes) | 2,292.8 | 0.4454 | 5,148 | 0.4053 | 48,768 |
| CORE (no forgetting) | 2,548.0 | 0.4949 | 5,148 | 0.4541 | 48,768 |
| CORE (no hierarchy) | 3,360.7 | 0.6528 | 5,148 | 0.6417 | 48,768 |
| Transformer | 2,847.1 | 0.5531 | 5,148 | 0.5569 | 48,768 |
| Centaur | 2,936.1 | 0.5703 | 5,148 | – | – |
Experiments
| exp | task class | participants | responses | conditions | simulated | effects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exp0 | RiskyChoice | 127 | 20,964 | 1 | no | – |
| exp1 | RiskyChoice | 240 | 32,952 | 1 | no | – |
Behavioral effects
No behavioral effects were simulated for this study.
Transcript
You take part in a risky-choice experiment. Earlier you rated 60 lotteries on a scale from 1 (least attractive) to 7 (most attractive). Now you choose between pairs of lotteries. On each trial you see Lottery A and Lottery B. Press A to choose Lottery A, or press B to choose Lottery B. At the end, one trial is selected and the chosen lottery played out, paying a bonus in experimental pounds converted to sterling at 20 to 1. New block: all pairs in this block have the same rating difference of 1.0 and there is no time limit. Lottery A: 49 at 37%, or 92 at 63%. Lottery B: 70 at 38%, or 60 at 62%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 63 at 50%, or 58 at 50%. Lottery B: 47 at 34%, or 92 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 81 at 35%, or 70 at 65%. Lottery B: 47 at 34%, or 92 at 66%. You press A. Lottery A: 78 at 41%, or 73 at 59%. Lottery B: 88 at 35%, or 49 at 65%. You press A. Lottery A: 41 at 50%, or 31 at 50%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press B. Lottery A: 53 at 44%, or 42 at 56%. Lottery B: 24 at 50%, or 46 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 84 at 50%, or 44 at 50%. Lottery B: 45 at 50%, or 55 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. Lottery B: 88 at 35%, or 49 at 65%. You press B. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. Lottery B: 81 at 37%, or 40 at 63%. You press B. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. Lottery B: 53 at 40%, or 48 at 60%. You press B. Lottery A: 47 at 34%, or 92 at 66%. Lottery B: 82 at 27%, or 71 at 73%. You press B. Lottery A: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. Lottery B: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 88 at 39%, or 67 at 61%. Lottery B: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 53 at 40%, or 48 at 60%. Lottery B: 45 at 50%, or 55 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 50 at 32%, or 55 at 68%. Lottery B: 48 at 35%, or 69 at 65%. You press B. Lottery A: 84 at 50%, or 44 at 50%. Lottery B: 82 at 50%, or 72 at 50%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. Lottery B: 88 at 35%, or 49 at 65%. You press B. Lottery A: 83 at 34%, or 43 at 66%. Lottery B: 81 at 37%, or 40 at 63%. You press A. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 39 at 34%, or 34 at 66%. You press A. Lottery A: 50 at 32%, or 55 at 68%. Lottery B: 47 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. You press A. New block: all pairs in this block have the same rating difference of 1.5 and there is no time limit. Lottery A: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. Lottery B: 72 at 26%, or 60 at 74%. You press B. Lottery A: 95 at 26%, or 70 at 74%. Lottery B: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 83 at 34%, or 43 at 66%. Lottery B: 48 at 45%, or 58 at 55%. You press A. Lottery A: 20 at 25%, or 41 at 75%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 46 at 34%, or 69 at 66%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 44 at 50%, or 49 at 50%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. Lottery B: 72 at 26%, or 60 at 74%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 88 at 35%, or 49 at 65%. Lottery B: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. You press B. Lottery A: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. Lottery B: 81 at 37%, or 40 at 63%. You press B. Lottery A: 69 at 50%, or 59 at 50%. Lottery B: 46 at 34%, or 69 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. Lottery B: 72 at 26%, or 60 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. Lottery B: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. You press B. Lottery A: 46 at 34%, or 69 at 66%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 63 at 50%, or 58 at 50%. Lottery B: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 82 at 50%, or 72 at 50%. Lottery B: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. You press A. Lottery A: 73 at 50%, or 52 at 50%. Lottery B: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. You press A. Lottery A: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. Lottery B: 81 at 35%, or 70 at 65%. You press A. Lottery A: 33 at 37%, or 54 at 63%. Lottery B: 44 at 50%, or 49 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 39 at 34%, or 34 at 66%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 33 at 37%, or 54 at 63%. Lottery B: 59 at 50%, or 49 at 50%. You press B. New block: the pairs have varying rating differences, and a 90-second red timer counts down; the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 41 at 50%, or 31 at 50%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press B. Lottery A: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. Lottery B: 33 at 37%, or 54 at 63%. You press B. Lottery A: 49 at 37%, or 92 at 63%. Lottery B: 82 at 50%, or 72 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 63 at 50%, or 58 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 28 at 34%, or 39 at 66%. Lottery B: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. Lottery B: 53 at 44%, or 42 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 39 at 34%, or 34 at 66%. You press A. Lottery A: 24 at 50%, or 46 at 50%. Lottery B: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. Lottery B: 69 at 50%, or 59 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. You press B. Lottery A: 28 at 34%, or 39 at 66%. Lottery B: 52 at 50%, or 94 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 66 at 42%, or 61 at 56%. You press B. Lottery A: 69 at 50%, or 59 at 50%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press B. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 53 at 44%, or 42 at 56%. You press B. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 84 at 50%, or 44 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 46 at 36%, or 27 at 64%. You press A. Lottery A: 73 at 50%, or 52 at 50%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 72 at 26%, or 60 at 74%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 50 at 32%, or 55 at 68%. Lottery B: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. You press A. Lottery A: 88 at 39%, or 67 at 61%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press B. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. Lottery B: 72 at 28%, or 48 at 72%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 53 at 44%, or 42 at 56%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 81 at 37%, or 40 at 63%. Lottery B: 66 at 42%, or 61 at 56%. You press A. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 7 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. New block: the pairs have varying rating differences, and a 90-second red timer counts down; the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. Lottery B: 70 at 38%, or 60 at 62%. You press B. Lottery A: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 84 at 50%, or 44 at 50%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 72 at 28%, or 48 at 72%. You press B. Lottery A: 49 at 37%, or 92 at 63%. Lottery B: 86 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. Lottery B: 48 at 45%, or 58 at 55%. You press B. Lottery A: 58 at 28%, or 63 at 71%. Lottery B: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. You press B. Lottery A: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. Lottery B: 39 at 34%, or 34 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 53 at 40%, or 48 at 60%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press B. Lottery A: 48 at 45%, or 58 at 55%. Lottery B: 46 at 36%, or 27 at 64%. You press A. Lottery A: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. Lottery B: 41 at 50%, or 31 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 63 at 50%, or 58 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 78 at 41%, or 73 at 59%. Lottery B: 47 at 34%, or 92 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 52 at 50%, or 94 at 50%. Lottery B: 46 at 34%, or 69 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. Lottery B: 33 at 45%, or 38 at 55%. You press A. Lottery A: 24 at 50%, or 46 at 50%. Lottery B: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. Lottery B: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 33 at 45%, or 38 at 55%. You press A. Lottery A: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. Lottery B: 77 at 50%, or 72 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. Lottery B: 84 at 50%, or 44 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 78 at 41%, or 73 at 59%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. Lottery B: 46 at 34%, or 69 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 78 at 28%, or 72 at 71%. Lottery B: 47 at 34%, or 92 at 66%. You press A. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 7 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. New block: all pairs in this block have the same rating difference of 2.5 and there is no time limit. Lottery A: 52 at 50%, or 94 at 50%. Lottery B: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. You press A. Lottery A: 66 at 42%, or 61 at 56%. Lottery B: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. You press A. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. Lottery B: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 72 at 26%, or 60 at 74%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press B. Lottery A: 83 at 34%, or 43 at 66%. Lottery B: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 48 at 35%, or 69 at 65%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 66 at 42%, or 61 at 56%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press A. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 95 at 26%, or 70 at 74%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 45 at 50%, or 55 at 50%. Lottery B: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. You press A. Lottery A: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. Lottery B: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. You press A. Lottery A: 47 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 53 at 33%, or 43 at 67%. You press B. Lottery A: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. Lottery B: 39 at 34%, or 34 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. Lottery B: 28 at 39%, or 38 at 61%. You press B. Lottery A: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. Lottery B: 73 at 50%, or 52 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 58 at 28%, or 63 at 71%. You press B. Lottery A: 70 at 38%, or 60 at 62%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press A. Lottery A: 82 at 27%, or 71 at 73%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. New block: all pairs in this block have the same rating difference of 3.0 and there is no time limit. Lottery A: 46 at 36%, or 27 at 64%. Lottery B: 53 at 33%, or 43 at 67%. You press B. Lottery A: 53 at 40%, or 48 at 60%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. Lottery B: 84 at 50%, or 44 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 48 at 35%, or 69 at 65%. Lottery B: 46 at 36%, or 27 at 64%. You press A. Lottery A: 88 at 35%, or 49 at 65%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 95 at 26%, or 70 at 74%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. Lottery B: 50 at 32%, or 55 at 68%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. Lottery B: 45 at 27%, or 51 at 73%. You press B. Lottery A: 82 at 50%, or 72 at 50%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 34%, or 39 at 66%. Lottery B: 82 at 50%, or 72 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. Lottery B: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 49 at 37%, or 92 at 63%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 28 at 34%, or 39 at 66%. Lottery B: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. Lottery B: 41 at 50%, or 31 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 44 at 50%, or 49 at 50%. Lottery B: 46 at 36%, or 27 at 64%. You press A. Lottery A: 46 at 34%, or 69 at 66%. Lottery B: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. Lottery B: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 46 at 36%, or 27 at 64%. Lottery B: 47 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 33 at 45%, or 38 at 55%. Lottery B: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. Lottery B: 33 at 45%, or 38 at 55%. You press B. New block: the pairs have varying rating differences, and a 90-second red timer counts down; the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. Lottery B: 52 at 50%, or 94 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. Lottery B: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. You press B. Lottery A: 49 at 37%, or 92 at 63%. Lottery B: 81 at 35%, or 70 at 65%. You press B. Lottery A: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. Lottery B: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. You press B. Lottery A: 45 at 27%, or 51 at 73%. Lottery B: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. Lottery B: 2 at 26%, or 49 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 53 at 40%, or 48 at 60%. Lottery B: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. You press A. Lottery A: 51 at 45%, or 56 at 55%. Lottery B: 47 at 27%, or 58 at 73%. You press A. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 70 at 38%, or 60 at 62%. You press B. Lottery A: 81 at 37%, or 40 at 63%. Lottery B: 69 at 50%, or 59 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. Lottery B: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 34%, or 39 at 66%. Lottery B: 86 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 83 at 34%, or 43 at 66%. Lottery B: 72 at 28%, or 48 at 72%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 52 at 50%, or 94 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 52 at 50%, or 94 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 47 at 34%, or 92 at 66%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 24 at 50%, or 46 at 50%. Lottery B: 37 at 50%, or 32 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 86 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. Lottery B: 83 at 34%, or 43 at 66%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 88 at 35%, or 49 at 65%. Lottery B: 73 at 50%, or 52 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. Lottery B: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 33 at 37%, or 54 at 63%. Lottery B: 47 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 47 at 34%, or 92 at 66%. Lottery B: 72 at 26%, or 60 at 74%. You press A. Lottery A: 35 at 50%, or 75 at 50%. Lottery B: 20 at 25%, or 41 at 75%. You press A. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 8 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. New block: the pairs have varying rating differences, and a 90-second red timer counts down; the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 47 at 50%, or 66 at 50%. Lottery B: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. Lottery B: 73 at 50%, or 52 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 45 at 50%, or 55 at 50%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press B. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 51 at 50%. Lottery B: 81 at 37%, or 40 at 63%. You press B. Lottery A: 45 at 27%, or 51 at 73%. Lottery B: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 47 at 27%, or 58 at 73%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 52 at 50%, or 94 at 50%. Lottery B: 49 at 37%, or 92 at 63%. You press A. Lottery A: 39 at 34%, or 34 at 66%. Lottery B: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 63 at 50%, or 58 at 50%. Lottery B: 28 at 34%, or 39 at 66%. You press A. Lottery A: 44 at 50%, or 49 at 50%. Lottery B: 83 at 34%, or 43 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 81 at 37%, or 40 at 63%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 77 at 50%, or 72 at 50%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press A. Lottery A: 41 at 50%, or 31 at 50%. Lottery B: 22 at 39%, or 62 at 61%. You press A. Lottery A: 82 at 27%, or 71 at 73%. Lottery B: 32 at 32%, or 75 at 68%. You press A. Lottery A: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. Lottery B: 45 at 50%, or 55 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 73 at 50%, or 52 at 50%. Lottery B: 50 at 32%, or 55 at 68%. You press A. Lottery A: 45 at 27%, or 51 at 73%. Lottery B: 59 at 50%, or 49 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 88 at 35%, or 49 at 65%. Lottery B: 32 at 25%, or 56 at 75%. You press A. Lottery A: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. Lottery B: 13 at 42%, or 52 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 49 at 37%, or 92 at 63%. Lottery B: 73 at 50%, or 52 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 81 at 35%, or 70 at 65%. You press B. Lottery A: 28 at 50%, or 70 at 50%. Lottery B: 69 at 50%, or 59 at 50%. You press B. Lottery A: 68 at 35%, or 47 at 65%. Lottery B: 57 at 50%, or 16 at 50%. You press A. Lottery A: 37 at 50%, or 32 at 50%. Lottery B: 28 at 39%, or 38 at 61%. You press A. Lottery A: 78 at 28%, or 72 at 71%. Lottery B: 79 at 31%, or 32 at 69%. You press A. Lottery A: 56 at 50%, or 37 at 50%. Lottery B: 53 at 33%, or 43 at 67%. You press B. Lottery A: 46 at 36%, or 27 at 64%. Lottery B: 24 at 50%, or 46 at 50%. You press A. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 5 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. At the end, one trial was selected for payment and the chosen lottery played out. Your total bonus was 72 experimental pounds.
You take part in a risky-choice experiment. Earlier you rated pairs of lotteries on a sliding scale from -100 (preferring the left lottery) to +100 (preferring the right). Now you choose between pairs of lotteries. On each trial you see Lottery A and Lottery B. Press A to choose Lottery A, or press B to choose Lottery B. One trial is selected at the end and paid as a bonus in experimental pounds converted to sterling at 20 to 1. New block: an 80-second timer counts down and the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 55 at 62%, or 73 at 38%. Lottery B: 75 at 53%, or 32 at 47%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 17 at 5%, or 24 at 95%. Lottery B: 63 at 8%, or 11 at 92%. You press B. Lottery A: 93 at 66%, or 13 at 34%. Lottery B: 20 at 65%, or 86 at 35%. You press A. Lottery A: 14 at 58%, or 88 at 42%. Lottery B: 12 at 34%, or 96 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 86 at 1%, or 26 at 99%. Lottery B: 77 at 10%, or 37 at 90%. You press A. Lottery A: 99 at 1%, or 28 at 99%. Lottery B: 53 at 93%, or 38 at 7%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 89 at 86%, or 92 at 14%. Lottery B: 29 at 10%, or 94 at 90%. You press B. Lottery A: 94 at 95%, or 24 at 5%. Lottery B: 85 at 96%, or 35 at 4%. You press A. Lottery A: 61 at 43%, or 76 at 57%. Lottery B: 57 at 32%, or 98 at 68%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 94 at 51%, or 14 at 49%. Lottery B: 93 at 57%, or 25 at 43%. You press B. Lottery A: 35 at 31%, or 45 at 69%. Lottery B: 21 at 44%, or 54 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 39 at 47%, or 60 at 53%. Lottery B: 36 at 54%, or 70 at 46%. You press B. Lottery A: 67 at 12%, or 41 at 88%. Lottery B: 36 at 98%, or 75 at 2%. The block timer runs out before you respond. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 7 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. New block: an 80-second timer counts down and the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 61 at 97%, or 80 at 3%. Lottery B: 12 at 15%, or 97 at 85%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 13 at 93%, or 85 at 7%. Lottery B: 36 at 88%, or 75 at 12%. You press B. Lottery A: 14 at 31%, or 73 at 69%. Lottery B: 15 at 45%, or 46 at 55%. You press A. Lottery A: 68 at 69%, or 46 at 31%. Lottery B: 64 at 68%, or 49 at 32%. You press A. Lottery A: 43 at 13%, or 94 at 87%. Lottery B: 74 at 85%, or 58 at 15%. You press A. Lottery A: 84 at 49%, or 60 at 51%. Lottery B: 99 at 39%, or 17 at 61%. You press B. Lottery A: 87 at 88%, or 83 at 12%. Lottery B: 82 at 89%, or 96 at 11%. You press B. Lottery A: 39 at 94%, or 33 at 6%. Lottery B: 97 at 14%, or 11 at 86%. You press A. Lottery A: 32 at 92%, or 96 at 8%. Lottery B: 34 at 88%, or 51 at 12%. You press A. Lottery A: 99 at 35%, or 15 at 65%. Lottery B: 64 at 70%, or 47 at 30%. The block timer runs out before you respond. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 10 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. New block: no time limit. Lottery A: 61 at 43%, or 76 at 57%. Lottery B: 57 at 32%, or 98 at 68%. You press B. Lottery A: 99 at 1%, or 28 at 99%. Lottery B: 53 at 93%, or 38 at 7%. You press B. Lottery A: 32 at 68%, or 98 at 32%. Lottery B: 40 at 37%, or 97 at 63%. You press B. Lottery A: 14 at 58%, or 88 at 42%. Lottery B: 12 at 34%, or 96 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 94 at 51%, or 14 at 49%. Lottery B: 93 at 57%, or 25 at 43%. You press B. Lottery A: 86 at 1%, or 26 at 99%. Lottery B: 77 at 10%, or 37 at 90%. You press B. Lottery A: 17 at 64%, or 99 at 36%. Lottery B: 63 at 34%, or 42 at 66%. You press B. Lottery A: 93 at 66%, or 13 at 34%. Lottery B: 20 at 65%, or 86 at 35%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 67 at 12%, or 41 at 88%. Lottery B: 36 at 98%, or 75 at 2%. You press B. Lottery A: 89 at 86%, or 92 at 14%. Lottery B: 29 at 10%, or 94 at 90%. You press A. Lottery A: 55 at 62%, or 73 at 38%. Lottery B: 75 at 53%, or 32 at 47%. You press A. Lottery A: 35 at 31%, or 45 at 69%. Lottery B: 21 at 44%, or 54 at 56%. You press A. Lottery A: 39 at 47%, or 60 at 53%. Lottery B: 36 at 54%, or 70 at 46%. You press B. Lottery A: 17 at 5%, or 24 at 95%. Lottery B: 63 at 8%, or 11 at 92%. You press B. Lottery A: 27 at 1%, or 72 at 99%. Lottery B: 39 at 14%, or 60 at 86%. You press A. Lottery A: 65 at 9%, or 50 at 91%. Lottery B: 21 at 86%, or 67 at 14%. You press A. Lottery A: 25 at 15%, or 72 at 85%. Lottery B: 75 at 96%, or 18 at 4%. You press B. Lottery A: 94 at 95%, or 24 at 5%. Lottery B: 85 at 96%, or 35 at 4%. You press A. Lottery A: 20 at 91%, or 38 at 9%. Lottery B: 39 at 85%, or 17 at 15%. You press B. Lottery A: 42 at 62%, or 53 at 38%. Lottery B: 19 at 63%, or 72 at 37%. You press A. New block: no time limit. Lottery A: 87 at 88%, or 83 at 12%. Lottery B: 82 at 89%, or 96 at 11%. You press B. Lottery A: 11 at 42%, or 97 at 58%. Lottery B: 93 at 62%, or 46 at 38%. You press B. Lottery A: 68 at 69%, or 46 at 31%. Lottery B: 64 at 68%, or 49 at 32%. You press A. Lottery A: 96 at 67%, or 14 at 33%. Lottery B: 57 at 57%, or 78 at 43%. You press B. Lottery A: 44 at 12%, or 65 at 88%. Lottery B: 64 at 14%, or 60 at 86%. You press B. Lottery A: 13 at 93%, or 85 at 7%. Lottery B: 36 at 88%, or 75 at 12%. You press B. Lottery A: 61 at 97%, or 80 at 3%. Lottery B: 12 at 15%, or 97 at 85%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 37 at 69%, or 33 at 31%. Lottery B: 32 at 57%, or 74 at 43%. You press B. Lottery A: 99 at 35%, or 15 at 65%. Lottery B: 64 at 70%, or 47 at 30%. You press A. Lottery A: 43 at 13%, or 94 at 87%. Lottery B: 74 at 85%, or 58 at 15%. You press A. Lottery A: 13 at 93%, or 98 at 7%. Lottery B: 42 at 13%, or 33 at 87%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 84 at 49%, or 60 at 51%. Lottery B: 99 at 39%, or 17 at 61%. You press A. Lottery A: 19 at 55%, or 92 at 45%. Lottery B: 87 at 69%, or 22 at 31%. You press B. Lottery A: 39 at 94%, or 33 at 6%. Lottery B: 97 at 14%, or 11 at 86%. You press A. Lottery A: 14 at 31%, or 73 at 69%. Lottery B: 15 at 45%, or 46 at 55%. You press A. Lottery A: 73 at 48%, or 20 at 52%. Lottery B: 72 at 31%, or 21 at 69%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 46 at 86%, or 69 at 14%. Lottery B: 96 at 10%, or 28 at 90%. You press B. Lottery A: 51 at 31%, or 48 at 69%. Lottery B: 62 at 63%, or 20 at 37%. You press A. Lottery A: 32 at 92%, or 96 at 8%. Lottery B: 34 at 88%, or 51 at 12%. You press A. Lottery A: 66 at 93%, or 55 at 7%. Lottery B: 38 at 15%, or 98 at 85%. You press B. New block: an 80-second timer counts down and the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 45 at 60%, or 72 at 40%. Lottery B: 67 at 54%, or 47 at 46%. You press A. Lottery A: 11 at 13%, or 95 at 87%. Lottery B: 68 at 2%, or 76 at 98%. You press A. Lottery A: 54 at 12%, or 50 at 88%. Lottery B: 42 at 94%, or 60 at 6%. You press A. Lottery A: 85 at 91%, or 90 at 9%. Lottery B: 17 at 15%, or 99 at 85%. You press A. Lottery A: 79 at 33%, or 44 at 67%. Lottery B: 60 at 30%, or 51 at 70%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 47 at 60%, or 88 at 40%. Lottery B: 71 at 53%, or 86 at 47%. You press B. Lottery A: 70 at 93%, or 99 at 7%. Lottery B: 83 at 5%, or 88 at 95%. You press B. Lottery A: 63 at 95%, or 40 at 5%. Lottery B: 66 at 94%, or 31 at 6%. You press A. Lottery A: 75 at 10%, or 44 at 90%. Lottery B: 29 at 13%, or 76 at 87%. You press B. Lottery A: 20 at 67%, or 95 at 33%. Lottery B: 24 at 44%, or 89 at 56%. You press B. Lottery A: 37 at 4%, or 28 at 96%. Lottery B: 98 at 15%, or 13 at 85%. You press B. Lottery A: 96 at 99%, or 30 at 1%. Lottery B: 99 at 94%, or 18 at 6%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 19 at 30%, or 88 at 70%. Lottery B: 89 at 43%, or 12 at 57%. You press B. Lottery A: 34 at 45%, or 45 at 55%. Lottery B: 79 at 51%, or 14 at 49%. You press B. Lottery A: 22 at 40%, or 28 at 60%. Lottery B: 40 at 68%, or 21 at 32%. You press B. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 5 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. New block: an 80-second timer counts down and the block ends when it reaches zero. Lottery A: 62 at 45%, or 81 at 55%. Lottery B: 94 at 62%, or 18 at 38%. You press A. Lottery A: 94 at 40%, or 39 at 60%. Lottery B: 30 at 30%, or 95 at 70%. You press B. Lottery A: 98 at 14%, or 12 at 86%. Lottery B: 16 at 99%, or 96 at 1%. You press A. Lottery A: 99 at 35%, or 21 at 65%. Lottery B: 97 at 46%, or 48 at 54%. You press B. Lottery A: 53 at 94%, or 30 at 6%. Lottery B: 98 at 12%, or 20 at 88%. You press B. Lottery A: 94 at 15%, or 13 at 85%. Lottery B: 47 at 90%, or 52 at 10%. You press B. Lottery A: 33 at 56%, or 22 at 44%. Lottery B: 16 at 53%, or 91 at 47%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 89 at 48%, or 63 at 52%. Lottery B: 66 at 41%, or 69 at 59%. You press A. Lottery A: 87 at 48%, or 48 at 52%. Lottery B: 45 at 70%, or 94 at 30%. You press A. Lottery A: 86 at 92%, or 23 at 8%. Lottery B: 84 at 14%, or 71 at 86%. You press B. Lottery A: 34 at 86%, or 88 at 14%. Lottery B: 93 at 1%, or 17 at 99%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 28 at 12%, or 91 at 88%. Lottery B: 82 at 2%, or 68 at 98%. You press A. Lottery A: 48 at 67%, or 33 at 33%. Lottery B: 30 at 38%, or 88 at 62%. You press B. Lottery A: 80 at 42%, or 22 at 58%. Lottery B: 58 at 33%, or 74 at 67%. The block timer runs out before you respond. The timer reaches zero; the remaining 6 lottery pairs of this block are not shown. New block: no time limit. Lottery A: 19 at 30%, or 88 at 70%. Lottery B: 89 at 43%, or 12 at 57%. You press B. Lottery A: 20 at 67%, or 95 at 33%. Lottery B: 24 at 44%, or 89 at 56%. You press B. Lottery A: 85 at 91%, or 90 at 9%. Lottery B: 17 at 15%, or 99 at 85%. You press A. Lottery A: 45 at 60%, or 72 at 40%. Lottery B: 67 at 54%, or 47 at 46%. You press A. Lottery A: 22 at 40%, or 28 at 60%. Lottery B: 40 at 68%, or 21 at 32%. You press B. Lottery A: 47 at 60%, or 88 at 40%. Lottery B: 71 at 53%, or 86 at 47%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 11 at 13%, or 95 at 87%. Lottery B: 68 at 2%, or 76 at 98%. You press A. Lottery A: 63 at 95%, or 40 at 5%. Lottery B: 66 at 94%, or 31 at 6%. You press A. Lottery A: 54 at 12%, or 50 at 88%. Lottery B: 42 at 94%, or 60 at 6%. You press A. Lottery A: 58 at 9%, or 71 at 91%. Lottery B: 94 at 99%, or 26 at 1%. You press A. Lottery A: 70 at 93%, or 99 at 7%. Lottery B: 83 at 5%, or 88 at 95%. You press B. Lottery A: 91 at 43%, or 45 at 57%. Lottery B: 58 at 47%, or 54 at 53%. You press A. Lottery A: 34 at 45%, or 45 at 55%. Lottery B: 79 at 51%, or 14 at 49%. You press B. Lottery A: 17 at 67%, or 83 at 33%. Lottery B: 22 at 56%, or 27 at 44%. You press A. Lottery A: 96 at 99%, or 30 at 1%. Lottery B: 99 at 94%, or 18 at 6%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 37 at 4%, or 28 at 96%. Lottery B: 98 at 15%, or 13 at 85%. You press A. Lottery A: 12 at 15%, or 98 at 85%. Lottery B: 89 at 8%, or 94 at 92%. You press B. Lottery A: 64 at 43%, or 39 at 57%. Lottery B: 76 at 30%, or 36 at 70%. You press A. Lottery A: 75 at 10%, or 44 at 90%. Lottery B: 29 at 13%, or 76 at 87%. You press A. Lottery A: 79 at 33%, or 44 at 67%. Lottery B: 60 at 30%, or 51 at 70%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. New block: no time limit. Lottery A: 75 at 13%, or 16 at 87%. Lottery B: 38 at 9%, or 32 at 91%. You respond, but this trial was removed from the data set as one of your 5% fastest or slowest responses. Lottery A: 94 at 40%, or 39 at 60%. Lottery B: 30 at 30%, or 95 at 70%. You press A. Lottery A: 17 at 98%, or 78 at 2%. Lottery B: 20 at 99%, or 42 at 1%. You press B. Lottery A: 86 at 92%, or 23 at 8%. Lottery B: 84 at 14%, or 71 at 86%. You press B. Lottery A: 48 at 67%, or 33 at 33%. Lottery B: 30 at 38%, or 88 at 62%. You press B. Lottery A: 89 at 48%, or 63 at 52%. Lottery B: 66 at 41%, or 69 at 59%. You press A. Lottery A: 62 at 45%, or 81 at 55%. Lottery B: 94 at 62%, or 18 at 38%. You press A. Lottery A: 53 at 94%, or 30 at 6%. Lottery B: 98 at 12%, or 20 at 88%. You press A. Lottery A: 29 at 31%, or 78 at 69%. Lottery B: 55 at 36%, or 63 at 64%. You press B. Lottery A: 80 at 42%, or 22 at 58%. Lottery B: 58 at 33%, or 74 at 67%. You press B. Lottery A: 87 at 48%, or 48 at 52%. Lottery B: 45 at 70%, or 94 at 30%. You press B. Lottery A: 99 at 35%, or 21 at 65%. Lottery B: 97 at 46%, or 48 at 54%. You press B. Lottery A: 20 at 70%, or 91 at 30%. Lottery B: 97 at 48%, or 19 at 52%. You press B. Lottery A: 72 at 92%, or 68 at 8%. Lottery B: 19 at 15%, or 99 at 85%. You press A. Lottery A: 33 at 56%, or 22 at 44%. Lottery B: 16 at 53%, or 91 at 47%. You press A. Lottery A: 94 at 15%, or 13 at 85%. Lottery B: 47 at 90%, or 52 at 10%. You press B. Lottery A: 34 at 86%, or 88 at 14%. Lottery B: 93 at 1%, or 17 at 99%. You press A. Lottery A: 28 at 12%, or 91 at 88%. Lottery B: 82 at 2%, or 68 at 98%. You press B. Lottery A: 98 at 14%, or 12 at 86%. Lottery B: 16 at 99%, or 96 at 1%. You press A. Lottery A: 18 at 9%, or 96 at 91%. Lottery B: 88 at 97%, or 73 at 3%. You press B. At the end, one trial was selected for payment and the chosen lottery played out. Your total bonus was 26 experimental pounds.