olschewski_2024_frequent

risky-choice psych-201

Across seven decision-from-experience experiments, participants repeatedly sample outcomes from two (or more) lotteries of varying payouts and skewness and then choose between them. Studies 1–4 (exp0–exp3, N=99, 250, 250, 500) use a sampling-then-choice "broker game" in which participants sample 30 outcomes per option per game before making a single choice, with normal/catch/disskewed/conskewed conditions. Studies 5–7 (exp4–exp6, N=71, 85, 45) use repeating multi-armed bandit games (30 or 60 trials) where participants learn option values across trials. The paper tests whether apparent skewness preferences reflect intrinsic skewness seeking or simply a preference for frequent winners (aiming more wins than losses), and shows a reinforcement-learning model capturing frequent winning plus intrinsic skewness provides the best account of choices.

Responses
46,966
3,673 held out
CORE effects
0 / 3
CORE test NLL (avg)
0.649
rank 3 of 7 models
Best model
CORE (no phonemes)
test NLL (avg) 0.599

Likelihood of human responses

modelPNLLtest NLL (avg)test responses train NLL (avg)train responses
CORE2,385.70.64953,6730.642543,293
CORE (no prediction errors)2,407.80.65563,6730.642843,293
CORE (no phonemes) best2,199.80.59893,6730.578343,293
CORE (no forgetting)2,428.40.66123,6730.653543,293
CORE (no hierarchy)2,543.90.69263,6730.687743,293
Transformer2,453.20.66793,6730.663843,293
Centaur2,382.20.64863,673––

Experiments

exptask classparticipantsresponsesconditionssimulatedeffects
exp0BrokerGameStudy1991,3861yesfrequent_winner_study1
exp1BrokerGameStudy22504,5001yesfrequent_winner_study2
exp2BrokerGameStudy32504,5001yesintrinsic_right_skew_study3
exp3BrokerGameStudy45008,5001no–
exp4BanditGameStudy57112,7801no–
exp5BanditGameStudy68515,3001no–

Behavioral effects

effectexperimentpaperCORECORE (no prediction errors)CORE (no phonemes)CORE (no forgetting)CORE (no hierarchy)
frequent_winner_study1exp0+0.672✗ no
+0.508
✗ no
+0.510
✗ no
+0.528
✗ no
+0.507
✗ no
+0.516
frequent_winner_study2exp1+0.671✗ no
+0.493
✗ no
+0.495
✓ yes
+0.570
✗ no
+0.496
✗ no
+0.504
intrinsic_right_skew_study3exp2+0.542✗ no
+0.506
✗ no
+0.512
✗ no
+0.511
✗ no
+0.510
✗ no
+0.504

Transcript

You play the role of a stock broker. On each decision you see two stocks side by side: the LEFT stock and the RIGHT stock. For each decision a history of the past 30 daily dividends of both stocks is shown, pair by pair (each pair shows one dividend from the left stock and, next to it, the same day's dividend from the right stock). After you have watched all 30 pairs, you decide which stock you want to draw a dividend from. Press B for the LEFT stock and A for the RIGHT stock. At the end one of your decisions is selected randomly and pays you that dividend as a bonus.
Decision 0: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 472), (382, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 472), (382, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 472), (436, 418), (436, 418), (382, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (382, 472), (436, 418), (436, 418), (436, 418), (382, 418), (436, 472), (436, 418). You press B.
Decision 1: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (484, 486), (488, 483), (461, 462), (466, 461), (490, 470), (486, 479), (410, 473), (490, 471), (491, 461), (469, 462), (442, 461), (487, 477), (485, 542), (475, 469), (491, 465), (482, 468), (489, 463), (479, 491), (490, 475), (481, 461), (491, 464), (491, 467), (477, 499), (489, 463), (453, 542), (483, 461), (410, 462), (491, 464), (473, 466), (488, 510). You press B.
Decision 2: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (367, 391), (363, 389), (363, 373), (361, 310), (361, 390), (386, 361), (370, 377), (379, 381), (410, 391), (364, 390), (442, 391), (362, 384), (375, 382), (371, 388), (361, 353), (391, 366), (373, 388), (369, 391), (377, 369), (399, 386), (442, 375), (366, 342), (383, 390), (368, 387), (361, 383), (365, 310), (364, 385), (361, 379), (362, 391), (362, 389). You press B.
Decision 3: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (305, 355), (345, 395), (345, 395), (305, 355), (305, 395), (305, 355), (345, 355), (345, 395), (345, 355), (305, 395), (305, 355), (305, 355), (305, 395), (345, 395), (305, 395), (305, 395), (345, 355), (345, 395), (345, 395), (305, 355), (345, 355), (345, 355), (305, 395), (345, 355), (305, 395), (305, 395), (345, 355), (345, 395), (345, 355), (305, 355). You press A.
Decision 4: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (537, 512), (531, 516), (523, 511), (460, 519), (532, 521), (533, 511), (540, 536), (492, 523), (541, 592), (511, 517), (516, 511), (540, 520), (541, 518), (539, 512), (503, 511), (534, 514), (541, 533), (541, 560), (538, 511), (536, 527), (460, 515), (525, 529), (527, 525), (535, 513), (539, 549), (540, 512), (538, 541), (541, 592), (529, 513), (519, 514). You press A.
Decision 5: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (541, 519), (559, 526), (491, 541), (519, 497), (524, 535), (549, 546), (504, 537), (478, 549), (507, 504), (515, 572), (546, 543), (513, 478), (509, 507), (517, 529), (543, 528), (537, 522), (553, 511), (501, 517), (529, 509), (522, 553), (572, 539), (511, 559), (497, 524), (533, 501), (526, 521), (539, 533), (521, 515), (535, 531), (528, 513), (531, 491). You press A.
Decision 6: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (429, 426), (446, 433), (404, 421), (433, 422), (459, 428), (397, 453), (449, 429), (424, 417), (437, 424), (472, 419), (391, 459), (431, 391), (419, 401), (422, 446), (443, 441), (409, 431), (421, 443), (417, 411), (428, 413), (415, 397), (413, 435), (411, 404), (439, 437), (378, 409), (407, 378), (426, 472), (441, 439), (435, 407), (453, 415), (401, 449). You press A.
Decision 7: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (447, 459), (469, 496), (428, 472), (496, 478), (465, 479), (485, 441), (503, 474), (461, 469), (483, 493), (459, 522), (476, 428), (463, 467), (471, 485), (472, 481), (499, 447), (491, 463), (478, 491), (441, 451), (522, 461), (467, 465), (479, 489), (474, 454), (457, 471), (489, 503), (451, 457), (493, 499), (487, 509), (454, 487), (509, 476), (481, 483). You press B.
Decision 8: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (380, 330), (420, 330), (380, 370), (420, 330), (380, 330), (420, 330), (380, 330), (380, 370), (380, 370), (420, 370), (380, 370), (380, 370), (420, 370), (380, 330), (380, 330), (420, 370), (420, 330), (420, 370), (420, 330), (380, 330), (380, 370), (420, 330), (380, 370), (420, 370), (380, 330), (380, 370), (420, 370), (420, 370), (420, 330), (420, 330). You press B.
Decision 9: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (412, 438), (423, 441), (414, 392), (413, 436), (460, 411), (411, 360), (412, 429), (414, 427), (441, 440), (418, 432), (433, 441), (411, 434), (492, 439), (417, 440), (411, 438), (412, 439), (436, 441), (411, 433), (449, 431), (429, 435), (427, 419), (419, 441), (411, 425), (420, 437), (421, 416), (492, 423), (415, 440), (416, 441), (425, 360), (413, 403). You press B.
Decision 10: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (384, 366), (384, 420), (384, 366), (384, 366), (330, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (330, 366), (384, 420), (384, 366), (330, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (384, 420), (384, 366), (384, 420), (384, 366), (384, 366), (330, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (384, 366), (330, 366), (384, 366), (384, 420), (384, 366). You press B.
Decision 11: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (534, 516), (534, 516), (480, 516), (534, 516), (534, 570), (534, 516), (534, 516), (534, 516), (534, 516), (534, 516), (534, 570), (480, 516), (534, 516), (534, 570), (534, 516), (534, 516), (534, 516), (480, 516), (534, 516), (534, 570), (534, 516), (534, 516), (534, 516), (480, 516), (534, 570), (534, 516), (480, 516), (534, 516), (534, 516), (534, 516). You press B.
Decision 12: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (381, 409), (367, 376), (409, 374), (361, 389), (379, 383), (387, 359), (369, 379), (376, 387), (399, 341), (389, 328), (372, 351), (383, 385), (385, 371), (347, 361), (403, 347), (351, 367), (371, 399), (391, 396), (378, 403), (363, 378), (422, 354), (328, 357), (393, 381), (374, 391), (341, 369), (354, 363), (365, 372), (357, 365), (359, 422), (396, 393). You press A.
Decision 13: the 30 dividend pairs (left, right) were: (464, 482), (464, 482), (518, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 428), (464, 482), (464, 428), (518, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 428), (464, 482), (518, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (518, 482), (464, 482), (464, 428), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482), (518, 428), (464, 482), (464, 482), (464, 482). You press B.