moutoussis_2018_change
Participants aged 14-24 (exp0 N=817, exp1 N=556) performed a Go-NoGo task with 144 trials across 4 conditions (Win-Go, Win-NoGo, Lose-Go, Lose-NoGo), requiring Go/NoGo responses to fractal cues for monetary win / null / loss outcomes (the paper states no per-trial amount). The study examined whether Pavlovian biases (action/valence congruency effects) act as stable traits or change during adolescence, using a longitudinal design with baseline and ~18-month follow-up sessions; the 6-month short follow-up session of 61 participants is included in exp0 as task_id = 1 (session = short_follow_up).
Responses
206,640
14,688 held out
CORE effects
2 / 2
CORE test NLL (avg)
0.409
rank 3 of 7 models
Best model
CORE (no phonemes)
test NLL (avg) 0.408
Likelihood of human responses
| model | PNLL | test NLL (avg) | test responses | train NLL (avg) | train responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORE | 6,015.1 | 0.4095 | 14,688 | 0.4150 | 191,952 |
| CORE (no prediction errors) | 6,009.2 | 0.4091 | 14,688 | 0.4155 | 191,952 |
| CORE (no phonemes) best | 5,990.4 | 0.4078 | 14,688 | 0.4119 | 191,952 |
| CORE (no forgetting) | 6,083.6 | 0.4142 | 14,688 | 0.4204 | 191,952 |
| CORE (no hierarchy) | 7,424.4 | 0.5055 | 14,688 | 0.5137 | 191,952 |
| Transformer | 6,452.9 | 0.4393 | 14,688 | 0.4471 | 191,952 |
| Centaur | 6,345.1 | 0.4320 | 14,688 | – | – |
Experiments
| exp | task class | participants | responses | conditions | simulated | effects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exp0 | GoNoGoTask | 817 | 126,432 | 1 | yes | pavlovian_congruency_performance |
| exp1 | GoNoGoTask | 556 | 80,208 | 1 | yes | pavlovian_congruency_performance |
Behavioral effects
| effect | experiment | paper | CORE | CORE (no prediction errors) | CORE (no phonemes) | CORE (no forgetting) | CORE (no hierarchy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
pavlovian_congruency_performance | exp0 | +0.180 | ✓ yes +0.150 | ✓ yes +0.118 | ✓ yes +0.128 | ✓ yes +0.139 | ✓ yes +0.100 |
Performance (P[correct]) is higher in Pavlovian-congruent (win_go, lose_nogo) than Pavlovian-incongruent (win_nogo, lose_go) conditions. Test: one-tailed paired t-test. | |||||||
pavlovian_congruency_performance | exp1 | +0.180 | ✓ yes +0.147 | ✓ yes +0.120 | ✓ yes +0.129 | ✓ yes +0.137 | ✓ yes +0.101 |
Performance (P[correct]) is higher in Pavlovian-congruent (win_go, lose_nogo) than Pavlovian-incongruent (win_nogo, lose_go) conditions. Test: one-tailed paired t-test. | |||||||
Transcript
You are playing a game for real money. On each trial you see one of four abstract fractal patterns (cue A, cue B, cue C or cue D) on screen, then a target appears shortly afterwards. Your job is to decide whether to press the button (Go) or to withhold the press (NoGo). Each cue has a fixed, unknown rule about whether pressing is better, so you must learn the rules by trial and error as the game goes on; the right answers gradually sink in. The outcome probabilities are 80% and 20%, and you can win or lose money. To choose Go (press the button), type G. To choose NoGo (do not press), type N. After your choice you see the outcome. Task 1. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue D. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue C. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue C. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press G. You win money. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes.
You are playing a game for real money. On each trial you see one of four abstract fractal patterns (cue A, cue B, cue C or cue D) on screen, then a target appears shortly afterwards. Your job is to decide whether to press the button (Go) or to withhold the press (NoGo). Each cue has a fixed, unknown rule about whether pressing is better, so you must learn the rules by trial and error as the game goes on; the right answers gradually sink in. The outcome probabilities are 80% and 20%, and you can win or lose money. To choose Go (press the button), type G. To choose NoGo (do not press), type N. After your choice you see the outcome. Task 1. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue A. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue A. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue C. You press the button prematurely during the cue. You press N. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. You lose money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press G. You lose money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. You lose money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue B. You press N. You win money. You see cue D. You press N. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue A. You press G. You win money. You see cue C. You press G. Nothing changes. You see cue A. You press G. You win money.