frey_2017_risk
The Basel-Berlin Risk Study is one large single-session battery in which ~1507 healthy adults (Basel and Berlin labs) completed 39 risk-taking measures spanning three measurement traditions: self-reported propensity (questionnaires), incentivized behavior (trial-level choice tasks), and frequency of real-world risky activities. The five transformed experiments cover the trial-level behavioral tasks for the full main sample: exp0 = adaptive lotteries/ABCT (N=1507, 50 lottery choices per participant), exp1 = Multiple Price List (N=1507, 66 MPL choices, including a Holt–Laury-style price list), exp2 = Balloon Analogue Risk Task (N=1507, ~30 balloon trials; number of pumps per trial), exp3 = Decisions from Description (N=1507, 8 A/B gamble problems), and exp4 = Decisions from Experience (N=1507, 8 sampled A/B gamble problems). Participants thus made per-trial risky choices and RTs across lottery choice, risk-taking, and description/experience gambles, with gain and loss domains. The central research question is whether a general factor R of risk preference exists (mirroring g), whether correlations between propensity and behavioral measures are weak, and whether such a general factor generalizes to real-world risky activities. The OSF data release additionally includes Expected-Utility and Cumulative-Prospect-Theory model-parameter fits (`modelpars.csv`), which are not reported in the paper.
Responses
186,734
3,838 held out
CORE effects
1 / 1
CORE test NLL (avg)
0.298
rank 2 of 7 models
Best model
CORE (no phonemes)
test NLL (avg) 0.296
Likelihood of human responses
| model | PNLL | test NLL (avg) | test responses | train NLL (avg) | train responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORE | 1,143.4 | 0.2979 | 3,838 | 0.3385 | 182,896 |
| CORE (no prediction errors) | 1,147.7 | 0.2990 | 3,838 | 0.3386 | 182,896 |
| CORE (no phonemes) best | 1,137.6 | 0.2964 | 3,838 | 0.3346 | 182,896 |
| CORE (no forgetting) | 1,178.8 | 0.3071 | 3,838 | 0.3470 | 182,896 |
| CORE (no hierarchy) | 1,485.3 | 0.3870 | 3,838 | 0.4313 | 182,896 |
| Transformer | 1,319.5 | 0.3438 | 3,838 | 0.3892 | 182,896 |
| Centaur | 1,633.3 | 0.4256 | 3,838 | – | – |
Experiments
| exp | task class | participants | responses | conditions | simulated | effects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exp1 | MultiplePriceList | 1,505 | 99,330 | 1 | yes | mpl_ev_sensitivity |
| exp4 | DecisionsFromExperience | 1,507 | 12,054 | 1 | no | – |
Behavioral effects
| effect | experiment | paper | CORE | CORE (no prediction errors) | CORE (no phonemes) | CORE (no forgetting) | CORE (no hierarchy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mpl_ev_sensitivity | exp1 | +0.800 | ✓ yes +0.844 | ✓ yes +0.848 | ✓ yes +0.833 | ✓ yes +0.826 | ✓ yes +0.654 |
within each multiple-price-list price list, the share of risky (higher-value) choices rises as the risky option becomes more attractive down the list; paired t-test on last-vs-first share, expected positive (people respond to the probability/EV structure). | |||||||
Transcript
In this task you repeatedly choose between two lotteries, X and Z. Each lottery has two possible payoffs (a gain or a loss) with stated chances. On every screen you see both lotteries and decide which you prefer. One of your decisions is paid out for real at the end, so your choices can win or lose you bonus money. On each trial press X to choose lottery X, or Z to choose lottery Z. Lottery X pays 100 with a 20% chance and 10 with a 80% chance. Lottery Z pays 50 with a 50% chance and 20 with a 50% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -10 with a 50% chance and -50 with a 50% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 95% chance and -80 with a 5% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -15 with a 30% chance and -25 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -10 with a 35% chance and -40 with a 65% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 65 with a 75% chance and -10 with a 25% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 60% chance and -100 with a 40% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 110 with a 20% chance and 40 with a 80% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 80% chance and -20 with a 20% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -50 with a 55% chance and -120 with a 45% chance. Lottery Z pays -40 with a 10% chance and -100 with a 90% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 65 with a 75% chance and -55 with a 25% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 60% chance and -100 with a 40% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 110 with a 70% chance and 70 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 160 with a 15% chance and 60 with a 85% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 90 with a 70% chance and 70 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 160 with a 15% chance and 60 with a 85% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -50 with a 30% chance and -120 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -40 with a 10% chance and -100 with a 90% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -80 with a 80% chance and -150 with a 20% chance. Lottery Z pays -40 with a 20% chance and -120 with a 80% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 50 with a 75% chance and 10 with a 25% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 20% chance and 20 with a 80% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 50 with a 50% chance and 10 with a 50% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 5% chance and 20 with a 95% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 110 with a 20% chance and 10 with a 80% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 80% chance and -20 with a 20% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -70 with a 30% chance and -110 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -60 with a 85% chance and -160 with a 15% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 35 with a 75% chance and 10 with a 25% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 20% chance and 20 with a 80% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 50 with a 70% chance and 20 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 90 with a 65% chance and 10 with a 35% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 25 with a 70% chance and 15 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 40 with a 65% chance and 10 with a 35% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 50 with a 25% chance and 10 with a 75% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 5% chance and 20 with a 95% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 35 with a 70% chance and 15 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 40 with a 65% chance and 10 with a 35% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -15 with a 30% chance and -35 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -10 with a 35% chance and -40 with a 65% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -10 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 90% chance and -80 with a 10% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -20 with a 30% chance and -50 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -10 with a 35% chance and -90 with a 65% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 100 with a 60% chance and 10 with a 40% chance. Lottery Z pays 50 with a 50% chance and 20 with a 50% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 60 with a 50% chance and 10 with a 50% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 10% chance and 20 with a 90% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -10 with a 80% chance and -100 with a 20% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 50% chance and -50 with a 50% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -100 with a 80% chance and -150 with a 20% chance. Lottery Z pays -40 with a 20% chance and -120 with a 80% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -40 with a 80% chance and -110 with a 20% chance. Lottery Z pays 20 with a 20% chance and -100 with a 80% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -20 with a 30% chance and -70 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -10 with a 35% chance and -90 with a 65% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 10 with a 25% chance and -40 with a 75% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 40% chance and -80 with a 60% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 55 with a 25% chance and -40 with a 75% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 40% chance and -80 with a 60% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -10 with a 75% chance and -50 with a 25% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 95% chance and -80 with a 5% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 70 with a 70% chance and 20 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 90 with a 65% chance and 10 with a 35% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -50 with a 60% chance and -120 with a 40% chance. Lottery Z pays -40 with a 5% chance and -100 with a 95% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -10 with a 40% chance and -100 with a 60% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 50% chance and -50 with a 50% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -70 with a 80% chance and -110 with a 20% chance. Lottery Z pays 20 with a 20% chance and -100 with a 80% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -10 with a 75% chance and -60 with a 25% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 90% chance and -80 with a 10% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -10 with a 25% chance and -50 with a 75% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 80% chance and -80 with a 20% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays -70 with a 30% chance and -90 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -60 with a 85% chance and -160 with a 15% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 150 with a 20% chance and 80 with a 80% chance. Lottery Z pays 120 with a 80% chance and 40 with a 20% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 150 with a 20% chance and 100 with a 80% chance. Lottery Z pays 120 with a 80% chance and 40 with a 20% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 60 with a 25% chance and 10 with a 75% chance. Lottery Z pays 80 with a 10% chance and 20 with a 90% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 120 with a 45% chance and 50 with a 55% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 90% chance and 40 with a 10% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 120 with a 75% chance and 50 with a 25% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 90% chance and 40 with a 10% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -10 with a 25% chance and -35 with a 75% chance. Lottery Z pays -20 with a 80% chance and -80 with a 20% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays 5 with a 70% chance and -15 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 40 with a 40% chance and -30 with a 60% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -50 with a 30% chance and -120 with a 70% chance. Lottery Z pays -40 with a 5% chance and -100 with a 95% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 120 with a 40% chance and 50 with a 60% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 95% chance and 40 with a 5% chance. You press Z. Lottery X pays 120 with a 70% chance and 50 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 100 with a 95% chance and 40 with a 5% chance. You press X. Lottery X pays -5 with a 70% chance and -15 with a 30% chance. Lottery Z pays 40 with a 40% chance and -30 with a 60% chance. You press X.
In this task you will see many pairs of lotteries. Each screen shows two lotteries, one on the left and one on the right, each with two possible payoffs and their chances. On every trial pick the lottery you prefer by choosing the left or the right option. Your choices may be paid out at the end. Press L to choose the left lottery, or R to choose the right lottery. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 10% chance and 0.1 with a 90% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 10% chance and 1.6 with a 90% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 20% chance and 0.1 with a 80% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 20% chance and 1.6 with a 80% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 30% chance and 0.1 with a 70% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 30% chance and 1.6 with a 70% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 40% chance and 0.1 with a 60% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 40% chance and 1.6 with a 60% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 50% chance and 0.1 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 50% chance and 1.6 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 60% chance and 0.1 with a 40% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 60% chance and 1.6 with a 40% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 70% chance and 0.1 with a 30% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 70% chance and 1.6 with a 30% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 80% chance and 0.1 with a 20% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 80% chance and 1.6 with a 20% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 90% chance and 0.1 with a 10% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 90% chance and 1.6 with a 10% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 3.85 with a 100% chance and 0.1 with a 0% chance. Right lottery pays 2 with a 100% chance and 1.6 with a 0% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -70 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -50 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -40 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -20 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -10 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 50% chance and -40 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 50% chance and -20 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 50% chance and -10 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 50% chance and -0.1 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 50 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 70 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 80 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 90 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 100 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 110 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 120 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 130 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 140 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 150 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 160 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 170 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 180 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 190 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 200 with a 50% chance and -60 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 20 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 40 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 50 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 70 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 80 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 90 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 100 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 110 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 120 with a 50% chance and -30 with a 50% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 46% chance and -60 with a 54% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 54% chance and -60 with a 46% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 58% chance and -60 with a 42% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 63% chance and -60 with a 37% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 67% chance and -60 with a 33% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 71% chance and -60 with a 29% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 75% chance and -60 with a 25% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 79% chance and -60 with a 21% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 83% chance and -60 with a 17% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 87% chance and -60 with a 13% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 60 with a 91% chance and -60 with a 9% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 42% chance and -30 with a 58% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 58% chance and -30 with a 42% chance. You press R. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 67% chance and -30 with a 33% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 75% chance and -30 with a 25% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 83% chance and -30 with a 17% chance. You press L. Left lottery pays 15 with a 50% chance and -5 with a 50% chance. Right lottery pays 30 with a 91% chance and -30 with a 9% chance. You press L.
In this task two boxes, A and B, contain unknown payoffs. You can draw (sample) outcomes from either box to learn what each tends to pay, then decide which box you prefer. Your choice may be paid for real. On each trial press A to choose box A, or B to choose box B. You drew 16 samples, switching between the boxes 15 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged 3.5 and variance 2. Box B outcomes averaged 3 and variance 0. You press A. You drew 32 samples, switching between the boxes 31 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged -3 and variance 0. Box B outcomes averaged -3.5 and variance 1.87. You press A. You drew 12 samples, switching between the boxes 11 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged 0 and variance 0. Box B outcomes averaged 3 and variance 0. You press B. You drew 31 samples, switching between the boxes 30 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged -0.6 and variance 1.54. Box B outcomes averaged -0.25 and variance 1. You press B. You drew 42 samples, switching between the boxes 41 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged -0.57 and variance 1.46. Box B outcomes averaged 0 and variance 0. You press B. You drew 18 samples, switching between the boxes 17 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged 0 and variance 0. Box B outcomes averaged 0.67 and variance 1.75. You press B. You drew 29 samples, switching between the boxes 28 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged 0 and variance 0. Box B outcomes averaged 0.4 and variance 1.11. You press B. You drew 12 samples, switching between the boxes 11 time(s). Box A outcomes averaged -3 and variance 0. Box B outcomes averaged 0 and variance 0. You press B.